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LittelWood's Law

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Jul 24, 2020, 6:28:07 PM
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Sep 16, 2014, 2:38:07 AM
` = "LittelWood's Law"`
`"Number Days"`
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This probability estimate, called Littlewood's Law, predicts that an individual should expect to experience a "miracle" about every 35 days -- or basically one per month.

This is based on the gross assumption and subjective definition that something that has a one-in-a-million chance of happening could be characterized as an extremely improbable event or a "miracle".

So, given this assumption of the probable occurrence of one in a million, we also make a fairly justifiable assumption that we experience something with our senses about every second. We see, we hear, we taste, we smell things and register their occurrence at a rate of about one every second.  And we also make an approximation that we are awake to have these experiences about 8 hour per day.

So, since 35 days at eight hours a day is close to a million seconds, and we can thus expect -- on average -- one of these highly improbable events to occur every 35 day.

This could be literally interpreted that you or I will experience a miracle every month or so.

 

This equation derives the probability that you will experience a miracle over an input span of days.


This equation, LittelWood's Law, references 1 page
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