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Probability of Three of a kind losing (fraction)

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Jul 24, 2020, 6:28:07 PM
Created by
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Apr 8, 2014, 3:36:06 AM
Probabilitythree of a kind loss=ProbabilitiesGreater Value HandsProbabilitythree of a kind loss=ProbabilitiesGreater Value Hands
Card Value of Three of a KindCard Value of Three of a Kind
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eb0b5524-bece-11e3-9cd9-bc764e2038f2

This equation defines the probability that another hand can beat your three of a kind and this probability is expressed as a fraction.  

/attachments/eb0b5524-bece-11e3-9cd9-bc764e2038f2/ProbabilityofThreeofakindlosingfraction-illustration.png

INPUTS

  • Card Value of Three of a Kind - the card value of the three of a kind cards in your hand

NOTES

The Three of a Kind hand can be beaten by all the hands of greater value: straight, flush, full house, four of a kind, straight flush, and royal flush. So the probability that an opponent has a hand that can beat your hand is the sum of all the higher value hands'  probabilities, plus the probability that your opponent has a Three of a Kind hand with a higher value three of a kind.  See Notes Page for further explanation.

The probability that you can be beat is the sum of the probabilities of any hand that can beat your Three of a Kind hand. Each of those probabilities is based on the ratio of the combinations of ways to be dealt those winning hands to the number of five card hands possible,(525). The total number of five card hands possible is computed as (525) (see the constant defining number of five card hands).

The probabilities that must be summed are:

  • The probability of being dealt a straight
  • The probability of being dealt a flush
  • The probability of being dealt a full house
  • The probability of being dealt four of a kind
  • The probability of being dealt a straight flush
  • The probability of being dealt a royal flush
  • The probability of being dealt a higher three of a kind hand

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